Centre members have recently been involved in the production of a rapid response report on the ongoing eruption in Iceland for the launch of the new UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

The explosive eruption on the 14th April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano, Iceland, caused an unprecedented closure of UK, European and North Atlantic air space, which must be understood if similar situations are to be better managed in the future. The report examines the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, its impact on aviation and implications for the future, in the expectation of further activity in Iceland.

Key findings included: 

• The current volcanic activity in Iceland is not unusual. Explosive eruptions, comparable to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull event, occur in Iceland every 20 to 40 years on average. The 1821-23 Eyjafjallajökull eruption lasted 14 months.
• Volcanic activity at Eyjafjallajökull only becomes a major problem over Europe if this activity is coincident with north to north westerly air flow between Iceland and North West Europe, which prevails for only 6% of the time. The implication, however, is that the most recent disruption of air transport in mid-May may not be the last, despite the current (24th May) cessation of ash production.
• The impact of the eruption on regional air space could have been predicted and better prepared for as the growing problem of aircraft-ash cloud encounters has been recognised for decades. Similarly, the potential for ash clouds, specifically from Icelandic volcanoes, to interfere with air traffic in UK, European and North Atlantic air-space was appreciated by the aviation industry well before the start of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption.
• The response to the ash cloud’s arrival in UK and adjacent air space was entirely reactive and therefore less effective than it should have been. This was primarily a function of the failure to recognise in advance the potential threat presented by volcanic ash clouds from Iceland. The situation was made worse by the inflexible nature of existing aviation protocols and by the absence of any pre-existing agreement on safe ash levels.
• Volcanic ash in the atmosphere can be highly damaging to the airframes, avionics and engines of civil jet aircraft: ingestion by engines of 2 gm-3 of ash has caused loss of power and near-crashes. The newly defined safe limits of ash are ad hoc and arbitrary and cannot be scientifically justified. Determining a range of robust best-estimate safe levels of ash for a wide range of situations, aircraft, engine types and pilot responses will cost time and money and will require the commitment of the aviation industry.
• Since the start of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption there has been much speculation about an eruption of the larger neighbouring Katla volcano. With the high frequency of eruptions of Katla, an eruption in the short term is a strong possibility. It is likely to be preceded by new earthquake activity. Presently there is no unusual seismicity under Katla.
• There is no doubt that future explosive eruptions in Iceland and elsewhere, coupled with appropriate meteorological conditions, have the potential to cause further disruption to air transport. It is not possible, however, to predict either when this will occur, or at what scale. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption demonstrated the limits of a precautionary approach. This then raises ethical issues, over who is to articulate the values to be taken into account when managing risk.

A copy of the report can be downloaded here.

Further information about the Institute can be found here.